Between 1991 and 1994, Lakehead University in Thunder Bay, Ontario led the development of a prototype computerized decision-making model through it's Centre for Archaeological Resource Prediction. A three year research and development project was jointly funded by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ontario Ministry of Culture and Tourism and Recreation, the Ontario Ministry of Northern Development and Mines and Lakehead University. Six volumes of reports were the result of this work. These volumes are slowly being brought on-line as web documents mimicking as closely as possible the layout in the published paper versions. Centre For Archaeological Resource Prediction MNR Report Series World Wide Web Versions Volume 3 - Methodological Considerations Volume 5 - Summary and Recommendations These volumes are also stored in .pdf format. This is a platform independent file format that can be read using Adobe Acrobat software. Obtain the appropriate reader software in order to view the files you may download below. Volume 1 - Introduction to the Research by Scott Hamilton and Linda Larcombe (89pp) The decision to systematically account for heritage resource values in timber management planning led to a number of new challenges for the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) the provincial agency responsible for the management of northern Crown forests. As a result of these challenges, the MNR sought input from a number of stakeholders regarding the best means of integrating heritage values into the planning process. The conventional approach to heritage resource impact assessment involves physical inspection of the area in question in order to locate and identify sites with heritage value. However, given the enormous expanse of land being managed by the MNR and in light of the difficulty of land accessibility and site visibility constraints, this conventional approach was deemed inadequate. Instead it was suggested that a more effective approach might involve the use of maps and other spatially-based data to infer patterns of past land use. That is, to create models of how past societies made use of the landscape, and then identify enduring elements of the ancient landscape that were important to the former occupants of the forest. To this end, a 2.75 year research project was initiated to conduct a feasibility assessment of once component of heritage values, namely prehistoric sites. The research focussed on how to conduct archaeological predictive modelling in the boreal forest on a large scale. This included examination of both methodological and theoretical issues. The final stage of this feasibility assessment involved development of a prototype archaeological predictive model. These research activities are summarized in a six volume report series Volume 1 introduces the research project, outlines the rationale for conducting archaeological predictive modelling, and offers a critical review of some of the challenges that must be overcome before it can be validly used as part of timber management planning. download this report (880k) Volume 2 - Boreal Forest Aboriginal Land Use Patterns (An Evaluation of the Ethnographic Literature) by Linda Larcome (66pp) At the onset of the research, the Centre for Archaeological Resource Prediction explicitly sought to incorporate culturally relevant variables into prehistoric predictive models for the boreal forest. This volume reviews and summarizes the ethnographic record in order to identify cultural variables that are useful in the archaeological predictive modelling process. These cultural values are derived largely from ethnographic sources regarding late 19th century and early 20th century boreal forest foragers. Volume 2 does not attempt a comprehensive reconstruction of post-contact culture change within the boreal forest. rather, the focus is upon review and synthesis of the ethnographic information base to derive a notion of the structure of ethnographically documented boreal forest land use, and also definition of some of the factors affecting variability in these behaviours. The review focusses primarily opon the foragers in Northwestern Ontario although the heterogeneity of the boreal foerest requires a review of ethnographies from the subarctic forests of Quebec, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Yukon. download this report (670k) Volume 3 - Methodological Considerations by Luke Dalla Bona (45pp) The theoretical and applied aspects of conducting archaeological predictive modelling are a relatively new field within archaeology. It has its basis in studies conducted during the 1950s and 1960s but gained prominence during the late 1970s and 1980s and coincided with a surge in cultural resource management in the United States. During the 1980s, the development of GIS technology resulted in its integration in archaeological predictive modelling. Predictive models developed to date are either deductive or inductively derived. Inductively derived models are dependant upon a database from which to generate models and thus, are subject to any biases existing in the database. Deductively derived models begin with theories predicting human behaviour. While deductive models better encompass the range of human behaviour, they suffer from changing interpretations and theoretical viewpoints. Two main directions are taken in the development of a predictive model: the numerical approach and the weighted value approach. The numerical approach makes use of statistical methodology to discover associations among archaeological sites and characteristics of the physical environment. Within those parameters, models are physically generated by either an intersection of weighted value method. The intersection method begins with the basic assumption that all variables used in the generation of a predictive model contribute equally to the determination of site location potential. Calculating high, medium low potential areas is simply a process of determining where the greatest number of variables converge in a given location. The weighted value method begins with the basic assumption that each variable contributes differently to the final determination of site location potential. This is accomplished by developing and applying a weighted scale which effectively ranks variables numerically. Site potential is determined by the arithmetic addition of all variables. Areas of high potential will have the largest numeric values and areas of low potential will have the smallest numeric values. During the development of a predictive model, a number of issues must be considered. These include the representativeness of the variables to that being modelled, the quality of databases consulted, the scale at which modelling should take place and the manner in which potential is presented. Predictive modelling is presented as a three stage process. Primary stage modelling includes hypothesis development, organization and data collection. Secondary stage modelling includes initial model development and testing and is the stage where most predictive models stop. Tertiary stage modelling includes continued application of the model and ongoing refinement. Ideally teritiary stage modelling is a never ending process whereby lessons learned from previous model applications are incorporated into new and future applications maintaining or increasing the predictive robustness of the model. The introduction of GIS into archaeological research has two profound results. The first was that the application of research approaches such as predictive modelling could now be effected over relatively large areas. Secondly, the use of geographic information systems allowed for the uniform analysis of large areas. Concurrently, the use of GIS introduced a range of considerations not traditionally a part of archaeological research. Issues surrounding digital data, cartographic theory, and general data integrity became an integral part of research design and strategy. download this report (400k) Volume 4 - A Predictive Model of Prehistoric Activity Location for Thunder Bay District, Ontario by Luke Dalla Bona (147pp, [56 colour plates are not included in this download because of size]) This volume is devoted to presenting a predictive model of prehistoric activity location that has been the focus of research carried out over the previous 2.75 years on behalf of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources. This volume is organized into four sections. The first section introduces the modelling rationale incorporated into this predictive model. The second section describes, in detail, a methodology for generating digital data that was developed, adapted and refined during the course of this research. This section also outlines the range of variables identified during the research as relevant to the modelling process, the weights and values ascribed to each variable and a methodology for manipulating those variables to ultimately result in a predictive model of prehistoric activity location. A means of statistically evluating the robustness of predictive models is also presented in this section. The third section summarizes the information presented in this volume. Additionally, information regarding the computer hardware and software used in this research is presented along with a brief discussion of a recommended predictive modelling computer workstation. The fourth section of this volume presents three examples of predictive models generated during the course of this research: The Abitibi model, the Brightsand model, and the Black Sturgeon Lake model. Each example includes a brief description of the study area, a brief description of the archaeological surveys that were conducted (also discussed in volume 6), a detailed description of the stepss employed in the generation of the models and the maps illustrating these steps and the final results. download this report (950k) Volume 5 - Summary and Recommendations by Scott Hamilton, Luke Dalla Bona and Linda Larcombe (32pp.) In this volume, the research into the feasibility of applying archaeological predictive modelling to northern Ontario timber management planning is summarized. This summary reflects upon the strengths of the approach as well as some of the weaknesses that remain to be resolved. This summary section serves as a prelude to a series of recommendations offered to the MNR regarding what is needed in order to strengthen the modelling process and to facilitate implementation of the approach into timber management planning. download this report (430k)